Information Barriers to Adoption of Agricultural Technologies: Willingness to Pay for Certified Seed of an Open Pollinated Maize Variety in Northern Uganda

We examine smallholder farmers’ willingness to pay for agricultural technology and whether information is a constraint to adoption of certified maize seed in Northern Uganda. The uptake of improved maize varieties by smallholder farmers in Uganda remains persistently low, despite the higher yield potential compared to traditional varieties. A recently growing body of literature identifies information constraints as a potential barrier to adoption of agricultural technologies. We used incentive compatible Becker‐DeGroot‐Marschak auctions to elicit willingness to pay for quality assured improved maize seed by 1,009 smallholder farmers, and conducted a randomised evaluation to test the effect of an information intervention on farmers’ knowledge of seed certification. Our results show that the randomised information treatment enhanced farmers’ knowledge of certified seed. However, using the information treatment as an instrumental variable for knowledge, we find no evidence of a causal effect of knowledge on willingness to pay, suggesting that even though farmers are information constrained, this constraint does not affect adoption of certified seed directly. Nevertheless, only 14% of sampled farmers were willing to pay the market price, which corresponds closely with actual observed demand for certified seed in the previous season. This suggests that there are other barriers to adoption than information and awareness.     

Agrarian Winners of Neoliberal Reform: The ‘Maize Boom’ of Sinaloa,Mexico

While the detrimental impact of neoliberal policy on Mexico's maize smallholders is well researched, little attention has been paid to the rise of maize in the northern state of Sinaloa. Sinaloa's entry into maize has restructured the geography of national supply, and generated a new national confidence in white maize self‐sufficiency. Using semi‐structured interviews and secondary data, we document the primary social and political drivers of Sinaloa's maize boom. Local actors trumpet Sinaloa's response as a success story of entrepreneurship and technological innovation, while simultaneously appropriating the language of food sovereignty to justify preferential entitlements in public investment. Our analysis confirms interpretations of neoliberalism as a political project, illustrating how existing natural, social and political capital held by specific interest groups can be leveraged and reinforced through private–public partnerships to mould national policy and investment, and the potential vulnerabilities that may emerge from this process.     

Reconstructing the Maize Market in Rural Mexico

The transition in Mexico from a maize market once characterized by heavy state intervention along the entire maize–tortilla chain to the ‘free market’ of today has been a long and complex process. Over two decades, the production of maize has seen a radical transition both in the geographical location of maize agriculture and the type of farmers growing maize. In this paper, I argue that the restructuring of the domestic maize supply is due to policy decisions to support private agents in the maize market; hence the state did not withdraw its involvement but, rather, has had a key role in the construction of the ‘free’ maize market, with the result that domestic supply for the market is concentrated in the hands of relatively few agents and in relatively few regions. I discuss the background to these policies and analyse the programmes implemented by the state agency ASERCA (Apoyos y Servicios a la Comercialización Agropecuaria) that support the commercialization of maize.     

基于比较优势的中国玉米生产布局变迁及优化研究

目的 基于2000—2018年中国各地区玉米生产面板数据,实证分析中国玉米生产布局变迁的轨迹、驱动因素及优化方向。方法 文章运用区域重心分析法测定并描绘中国玉米生产布局变迁轨迹,运用面板模型实证分析玉米生产布局变迁影响因素,并基于比较优势理论,针对影响因素进一步分析中国各玉米种植区域的比较优势,探讨中国玉米生产布局优化方向。结果 （1）中国玉米生产重心向东北方向移动明显,以黑龙江、吉林等省份为主的北方春播玉米区逐渐取代黄淮海夏播玉米区成为我国第一大玉米主产区;玉米生产布局变迁是玉米生长季温度、生长季降雨量、玉米生产成本和有效灌溉面积等因素综合作用的结果,且不同种植区域在这4个因素上具有不同的比较优势。（2）玉米种植优势产区主要集中在东北和黄淮海地区,包括内蒙古、黑龙江、吉林、辽宁、陕西、天津、河北、山东、河南;非优势产区主要集中在西南山地丘陵区,包括四川、贵州、云南、重庆、青海、西藏;其余为较优势产区,主要分布在南方和西部区域。结论 我国应遵循玉米生产布局变迁规律,因地制宜,优化玉米生产布局,并提高跨区域粮食调配能力,确保区域间粮食供需平衡。     

Cross country maize market linkages in Africa: integration and price transmission across local and global markets

In order to study short‐run price shock propagation, we model twenty seven Sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA) domestic maize markets within a Global Vector Autoregression framework. The main purpose is to fully embed multilateral trade flows as a way to better structure local price transmission dynamics and interdependencies, and get a more comprehensive picture of food price shocks propagation. We found significant between‐country market contagion and prompt regional price shock propagation when trade connection exists. Yet, the integration of SSA domestic maize markets within the continent and with global markets remains generally weak. Furthermore, under regular market conditions, most local price series appear to be more responsive to regional neighbors than to global shocks.     

Do crop purchase programs improve smallholder welfare? The case of Zambia's Food Reserve Agency

Government and parastatal crop purchase programs have regained popularity in sub-Saharan Africa, with many citing improving smallholder farmers’ welfare as a key goal. Yet there is limited empirical evidence on the topic. This paper analyzes the effects of the Zambian Food Reserve Agency's (FRA's) maize purchase activities on smallholder welfare. The FRA buys maize at a pan-territorial price that often exceeds market prices in surplus production areas. Using two household panel survey datasets spanning 15 years and exploiting variation in the scale of FRA activities over time, we employ fixed effects and control function approaches to estimate the effects of a smallholder household's maize sales to the FRA on its welfare, as well as the effects of more intense FRA maize purchase activity in a given district on the welfare of smallholder households in the district. Results suggest positive direct welfare effects on the minority of smallholders that sell to the FRA. We also find that, in the early years of the program, more intense FRA maize purchase activity in a district was associated with reductions in smallholder welfare, particularly among maize autarkic and net buying households. In later years, we find no evidence of such negative effects and some evidence of positive district-level effects on maize net buyers.     

彭阳县玉米干旱风险评估与区划

［目的］彭阳县玉米种植区域广泛，但干旱灾害频发，常造成玉米减产甚至绝收。因此加强彭阳县玉米干旱灾害风险评估与区划有着重要的现实意义。［方法］利用彭阳县气象数据以及地形、土壤类型等数据，基于灾害风险评估原理，运用相关分析法、层次分析法，结合GIS技术对彭阳县玉米干旱灾害进行风险评估与区划。［结果］彭阳县北部及西部降水少，玉米干旱危险性较高，南部和东部降水多，玉米干旱危险性较低； 草庙乡土壤保水性最差，玉米干旱敏感性最高，白阳镇、城阳乡土壤保水性最好，玉米干旱敏感性最低； 新集乡、白阳镇、草庙乡耕地面积所占总面积最大，玉米干旱暴露性最高，小岔乡耕地面积所占总面积最小，玉米干旱暴露性最低； 白阳镇灌溉田比例最高，玉米防灾减灾能力最强，彭阳北部1镇3乡都没有灌溉农田，玉米防灾减灾能力最弱。综合来看，彭阳县西北部玉米干旱综合风险较高，西南部和东南部风险较低，其余地区以中等风险为主。［结论］玉米干旱灾害风险评估与区划是科学认识农业干旱的基础，为科学管理以及制定合理有效的防灾减灾方案提供科学参考。     

Determination of the international maize price: What is the growing role of Brazil and Ukraine?

This paper examines the relationships among maize prices for four countries to determine if newly emerging exporters, Brazil and Ukraine, influence the international price of maize. Our work focuses on each market's participation in the price discovery process rather than trying to determine a price leader. We find that the United States plays the largest role in price discovery, followed by Argentina, Brazil, and Ukraine. We also search for export thresholds and find that Ukraine's contribution to price discovery rises slightly when an export threshold of 2.3 million tons is reached. No export thresholds were found for Brazil. Export thresholds for Argentina were found but only have a minor impact on price relationships. We also found that price relationships vary considerably across seasons of the year.     

基于Hybrid Maize 模型的3个生态地点玉米产量潜力评估

[目的]准确评估玉米高产措施的增产潜力,量化设计高产玉米技术模式,为合理应用玉米高产措施挖掘玉米产量潜力提供理论依据和技术参考。[方法]选取北京、泰安和榆林为研究地点,以当前大面积推广应用的玉米品种郑单958为供试品种,利用Hybrid-Maize模型,对"直播"、"晚收"和"增密"3种主要玉米高产措施下的玉米产量潜力动态响应规律进行模拟分析,进而设计构建适宜不同地点的玉米高产技术模式并评价其较当前生产模式下的增产潜力。[结果]在北京和泰安,播期推迟至5月20日后有利于玉米产量潜力增加,直播较套种措施下的玉米产量潜力在北京和泰安分别提高18%和20%;适时晚收可有效增加玉米产量潜力,在中产年份,每推迟收获1d,产量潜力在北京和泰安分别能够增加214kg/hm~2和204kg/hm~2;增密措施是提高产量潜力的重要措施,不同地点均表现为在密度高于7万株/hm~2后,增产效应降低。不同生态区的玉米合理密度不同,北京和泰安的合理密度在7. 5万～8万株/hm~2,榆林的合理密度在8. 5万～9万株/hm~2;当前的管理措施下,不同地点玉米长期平均产量潜力为12～15t/hm~2。通过措施优化组合能有效提高玉米产量潜力,不同地点措施优化途径不同。总体上,设计构建的高产技术模式较当前生产模式下的玉米长期平均产量潜力提高15%～41%。[结论]当前玉米生产主推技术(直播、晚收、增密)能有效提升玉米产量潜力,但其适用范围在不同地点有所不同,Hybrid-Maize模型是实现玉米定量设计栽培的重要手段。     

GIS支持下的玉米种植区土地生态适宜性评价

［目的］文章利用测土配方施肥和耕地地力评价结果，对高县玉米种植区土地进行生态适宜性评价。［方法］在GIS的支持下，结合层次分析法与空间插值等方法，选取气候条件、立地条件、土壤理化性状、土壤养分4个方面10个因子进行评价。［结果］（1）研究区玉米种植区可以划分为高度适宜区、适宜区、次适宜区和不适宜区，其面积分别为7 4073hm2、24 9386hm2、17 1160hm2和6 8230hm2，分别占耕地总面积的132%、443%、304%和121%； （2）影响该区域玉米种植适宜性的主要指标有生育期间≥10℃积温、生育期间降雨量、有机质、速效钾； （3）经实地调查核实与对比分析，评价结果与实际相符，适合玉米生长区域主要在河流沿岸阶地、平坝以及缓丘、低丘区，不适合种植在中部、西南部和东南部高丘、低山区。［结论］该研究认为对于次适宜种玉米的区域应以平整土地、增厚土层、培肥地力为重点进行耕地质量建设； 高度适宜和适宜区，可以引领优质玉米发展形成优势突出和特色鲜明的玉米产业带。反之，不适宜种植玉米的地区则应及时调整农业产业结构，改种其他作物或退耕还林。